Yesterday, we learned many things with Golden Globe nominees. Above all: That many of all will overlook most industry snubs if Joseph Gordon-Levitt picks up not only his Golden Globe, but also his Independent Spirit Award, and makes real the chance for Cameron from 10 Things I Hate About You to become a real Oscar contender. But also that movie awards snubs come in two classes. There are those that while snubbed by the decidedly popcorn-flick favoring ranks of the Hollywood Foreign Press, still stand a very real chance at Oscar gold. And then there are those must scale a nearly impossible impasse before they get on Oscar the Grouch’s radar. These are what we call “dark horses” and they’re delightful! A quick run-down after the break.
• Best Picture, Drama, Musical, or Comedy: I don’t really understand the point of separating films up into such three pointless genres, but that’s the Foreign Press for you! In any regard, Precious for its many well-deserved nominations, probably shouldn’t be counting a Best Picture among them. Rather, a film like Amreeka, and perhaps even Up which only appears in the Best Picture, Animated category but was one of the year’s most universally-appealing films, would’ve made excellent additions. Oscar still possible? Eh, the competition for this prize will play out almost the same way at the Oscars with Amreeka getting ignored and Up being marginalized to the kids’ table.
• Best Actor, Drama: Dafoe’s turn in Antichrist is an odd case. It works as an offbeat Oscar favorite and a dark horse alike. Even though, at this point, an actor must realize that for all the critical attention starring in a Lars von Trier vehicle earns him, it will never get him anywhere near Oscar gold. If Björk couldn’t do it with Dancer In the Dark or Nicole Kidman with Dogville, Willem Dafoe will never do it with something even more outrageous like Antichrist. Proceed to rage, rage against the dying of the light, if you must. Oscar still possible? Nope.
• Best Supporting Actor, Drama: I’m totally going to keep crowing the same old song here: Alan Rickman needs more than a single prize for his turn as Severus Snape. Oscar still possible? Possibly in 2012, which is when the last Harry Potter flick will ideally take home a barrel-load of awards for the entire franchise’s cinematic and blockbuster achievements.
• Best Actress, Drama: As highlighted with her ISA nomination, Amreeka‘s Nisreen Faour would’ve made for a refreshing upset. Especially in the place of someone like Julia Roberts who must’ve gotten an award because many voters, having not seen any of the filmes, voted on name alone. Honestly though, the real shitshow’s in the Best Actress, Musical or Comedy category where Meryl Strep is nominated twice. Oops! We’ll cut Faour’s loss here, then. Oscar still possible? Yes and here’s why. The Oscars are like a genetic cross-breed between the Golden Globes and the ISAs. It’s that rare recessive trait that presents a totally unexpected candidate–and because such nominees tend rile up critics and consumers alike, the Academy tries to curb such instances. Should Faour turn her ISA nomination into a win, then Oscar chances spike accordingly. The Academy also loves immigrant tales and occasionally vaulting unknowns into the limelight. Both should help Faour overcome this glaring GG oversight.
• Best Supporting Actress, Drama: Diane Kruger from Inglourious Basterds. Yes, yes, the Bear Jew was quite yum!, the Jew Hunter was ahh! ,and even Aldo was LOL! at times, but damn, Bridget von Hammersmark was diii-vine. In fact, von Hammersmark was the bad-assiest of all the Basterds in all the movie. More than that, von Hammersmark is easily one of Quentin Tarantino’s most impressive accomplishments as a heroine. Tarantino basically sucks at writing women. This insight from someone who adored all of Kill Bill. Nonetheless, Krüger did something remarkable with von Hammersmark’s character: She essayed a Tarantinian femme fatale while keeping her fatale from completely overtaking her femininity. The end result was the only supporting character who could hold her own against Colonel Landa and make you wonder why Basterds didn’t simply feature Christoph Waltz and Krüger butting heads. Oscar still possible? Not really. She’s failed to amass buzz this far and as the awards shuffle goes into overdrive, sadly Kruger seems set to get lost in the mix. Although the Academy is totally welcome to prove me wrong.
• Best Director, Drama: Many are faulting Pedro Almódovar for kind of phoning it in with Broken Embraces, which is why he’s slid from “critical darling” to “dark horse” this year. Although, such positive response really can’t lie. And let’s say that Broken Embraces wasn’t quite Talk to Her, we’ve let industry favorites slip in with worse material. Who else is going to remember Renée Zellweger’s undeserved 2003 Oscar for Cold Mountain? Anyone? Oscar still possible? Easily.